tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9324933951308782482012-02-16T14:58:23.782ZWill Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.comBlogger451100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-27413801803861045132010-05-31T16:38:00.001+01:002010-05-31T16:41:15.178+01:00

I am now blogging over at TheStupidPunt.co.uk. Visit me there for more thoughts, tips and comment on the world of racing in the UK.

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-28830013768429183842010-05-01T07:32:00.004+01:002010-09-06T15:00:23.076+01:00

When I started this project six months ago, on the back of a conversation down the pub, it was to find out whether at the tail end of a recession it could be more profitable to take a genuine gamble and stick my money on the horses, than to invest in the kinds of financial products which were under such scrutiny since the collapse of banks such as Northern Rock.I took £500, an amount I thought

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-60848760019431844682010-04-10T07:30:00.006+01:002010-04-11T07:25:32.536+01:00

Of course Aintree isn't just about the one race and thankkfully there are plenty of others that are a little easier to call than the Grand National.In the first race, a Novice hurdle, it's very difficult to see past Cheltenham winner Peddler's Cross, despite mixed fortunes for those who won in West Country trying to transfer their form, so soon, to Aintree. It makes sense some of the staying

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-25346162375441766562010-04-10T07:18:00.005+01:002010-04-11T07:23:56.781+01:00

Given this project is all about trying to make money the Grand National in about as wise an investment opportunity as shares in a chocolate teapot maker, so I'll likely be betting cash, purely for fun at the course today.I've now reduced my shortlist further to two potential winners, two solid each-way considerations and for those of you who fancy it, a long odds outsider who could yet be the

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-4166464579513660162010-04-08T12:12:00.002+01:002010-04-08T12:30:47.148+01:00

1. Madison Du Berlais: Not enjoying his best season but still arguably the classiest performer in the field. This race is a handicap though and he's been saddled with an almost impossible weight. Think of an outstanding athlete in decent form… pulling a piano. However, never say never. He's a past winner on the Aintree course, there are very few questions about his jumping and his jockey knows

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-59626237020802258012010-03-28T21:06:00.007+01:002010-03-30T21:15:07.819+01:00

The number of runners for the Grand National has been reduced and so my shortlist has shrunk a little more. You can read more about my calculations here but ultimately, preparing a Grand National shortlist boils down to some very simple rules:1) Strip out anything carrying more than 11 stone2) Rule out anything with a patchy record over fences3) Count out anything 12 or over, and eight or

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-53111213462342966802010-03-21T13:54:00.003Z2010-03-21T21:25:55.920Z

With the season's showcase event, the Cheltenham Festival, now behind me, and the self-imposed stagger of antepost betting unwound I can see clearly where I am with this project for the first time in a while.The total now sits at £947.69 - from my original investment of £500 - after a largely positive Cheltenham week, despite sinking £50 on Kauto Star in the Gold Cup.A similar sized wager on Big

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-28281967660945662832010-03-16T08:14:00.001Z2010-03-16T08:14:30.727Z

Cheltenham fever is upon us and it's more feverish than ever as the coming four days build towards Friday's 'Clash of the Titans', 'Beauty and the Beast', 'War of the Wolds' (any more?) showdown between Kauto Star and Denman (right).My money and my hopes are riding on Kauto Star and I'll be there to hopefully cheer him on home to a historic third Gold Cup and a 2-1 advantage over Denman who in

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-22967905412488900512010-03-16T08:10:00.000Z2010-03-16T08:11:02.093Z

I've created these two images for anybody who wants to brighten up their Twitter page, or stick a badge on their blog or website. Feel free to use them as you see fit and share with others:

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-27087791298365577802010-03-14T07:34:00.010Z2010-03-15T14:39:30.470Z

It was impossible to see yesterday's meeting at Sandown as anything other than a slightly gratuitous amuse bouche ahead of next week's feast of racing. A few weeks ago I'd have done just about anything to watch some racing, as snow lay thick on the country's best courses and horses kicked their heels in their stables. Now we're into the 'embarrassment of riches' part of the season.And considering

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-72437082911426642932010-03-13T08:32:00.005Z2010-03-15T10:48:56.898Z

140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup:A 4-mile novice chase is probably as easy to call as it is to win. Not very. But Mobaasher ticks enough boxes for me. Faultless over obstacles and with four good chases under his belt since the switch from hurdles he looks ready to build on the 3-mile trips around Cheltenham he has already experienced. Interesting that his switch to fences

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-57377007289806531282010-03-12T16:28:00.005Z2010-03-13T05:43:34.647Z

With each passing week I enjoy reading Chris Cook in the Guardian more and more. So much so I can even forgive the prison chic of the denim shirt / white T-shirt sported so casually in his mugshot. His own pace of wit and wisdom has gathered with the advancing Cheltenham Festival and this week he shares his thoughts on its significance."Four days to go. When I was a child, there was Christmas,

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-3761032991890422662010-03-11T23:26:00.018Z2010-03-14T16:57:10.823Z

Supreme Novice Hurdle:I got on board Dunguib very early at just shy of even money for a place. Since then his form has alerted all and sundry to Ireland's best chance of Festival gold and you'd get similar odds only for a win now. However, despite concerns about this senior citizen of novice hurdling, and the going which might favour speedier youngsters if rain isn't forthcoming, it would be a

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-81505885718229566272010-03-10T08:33:00.006Z2010-03-10T09:08:08.887Z

Wogan was a definite highlight of the past week over the fences at Doncaster, winning me much more than I lost on Possol's anaemic display in the same race and Can't Buy Time's poor showing in Newbury's feature race. However, that race did see a win for Big Fella Thanks who really looks a tremendous prospect - with question marks about his jumping fading fast - and a place for Pasco in the same

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-90874745766554284912010-03-06T16:35:00.009Z2010-03-10T09:16:51.092Z

Racing at Newbury and Doncaster today contained a few pointers for Aintree next month, and most people seem to be getting excited about the performance of Big Fella Thanks, after he romped to victory. It got me thinking.I've a decent record betting on the Grand National and my approach tends to be fairly straightforward: strip out anything aged 8 or younger and 12 or over, bar anything truly

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-14319912338191813382010-02-28T11:22:00.009Z2010-02-28T11:40:39.994Z

I took my camera to Kempton yesterday and while I had a few bets on I also used the opportunity to get some photos down by the final fence. In the day's big race, the Racing Post Chase, Fistral Beach went very early, taking my money with him but, while running as the loose horse on the outside of the track, he still managed to sneak into a picture I'd lined up nicely to capture Nacarat and

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-44916358717588839802010-02-23T00:07:00.007Z2010-02-23T00:45:11.763Z

I bumped into a very happy looking Harry Findlay (right) at Ascot on Saturday, owner of Denman and a string of other quality horses.Well, I say "bumped into", I was obviously giving him one of those half-confused mid-afternoon looks as I passed by that says: "I think I know you but my brain is about three pints behind my eyes right now."He very kindly reciprocated with one of those looks that

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-21157197555290775572010-02-13T15:58:00.007Z2010-02-13T17:52:45.237Z

Several important things happened this weekend regarding this challenge and where I may be come April. The first is that my running total went up to £824.44 - a 60 per cent in-running, return on my initial £500, with a couple of months yet to lose it all! That was thanks in large part to some winners: Diamond Harry, Long Run, Tricky Trickster, Get Me Out Of Here and Master Minded, and a very

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-75273034675480561162010-02-13T10:55:00.014Z2010-02-22T15:20:04.459Z

Every sport has its momentous showdowns which break out of their own fanbase and capture the imagination of a nation - or the whole sporting world. Sports fans don't need to be told which sport England v West Germany were contesting in 1966, Foreman v Ali in 1974, Carl Lewis v Mike Powell in 1991. But how about Kauto Star v Denman?While even the uninitiated would guess horse racing (the picture

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-74178640752149145452010-02-07T21:04:00.004Z2010-02-07T21:53:12.344Z

Week 13 was surprisingly lucky really. Not only was I at Sandown to see home some great winners, including Punchestowns and Russian Flag but I was there gratis too, thanks to winning four Premier enclosure tickets via Sandown's Facebook page (and hats off to them for embracing social networking too.)A win and a place at Doncaster too - Tazbar and Free World respectively - meant it was up, up, up

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-81208568913718965082010-01-24T11:39:00.010Z2010-01-24T19:34:54.063Z

I had a great day at Ascot yesterday but the betting could have been better, coming away £30 down from these bets. However, my take away from Berskshire - other than hands and feet yet to thaw - is greater insight into the changing fortunes of a sport I'm only really still getting to know, one good and one bad experience at a time.In some respects the tone of the day was set when AP McCoy took a

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-9350112205780562172010-01-23T09:44:00.003Z2010-01-23T10:02:49.661Z

I'm off to the races for the first time in 2010 today. It's Ascot and Victor Chandler Chase day.At last the worst of the winter appears to be behind us and with the wind back in my sails I've probably got a little carried away trying to make up for lost time and placing a few more bets than strictly required by my own rules of this project (which states I need to wager £50-per-week).Ascot:2.05pm:

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-34142133478710803262010-01-16T18:17:00.008Z2010-01-17T22:15:15.826Z

If Kempton is remembered for one thing this season you'd like to think it would be for staging Kauto Star's successful bid for an historic fourth King George VI Chase on Boxing Day.But for many a writer, pundit, punter and racegoer, simply holding a jumps meeting - any jumps meeting - today was a hugely welcome achievement, all the more noteworthy for the fact it finally brought to an end a

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-30994033673695596342010-01-16T15:35:00.003Z2010-01-16T15:47:04.108Z

There's a lot of talk about what the UK's racing authorities can do to make racing 'more interesting' to new audiences. Well, how about this from the US where jockeys are throwing punches while riding.Look at these two going at it while travelling at 30 mph+.

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-62761980261533870292010-01-12T15:38:00.007Z2010-01-13T11:46:09.307Z

A few years ago I defrosted a freezer. Not, I admit, the start to the most exciting of stories but in the continued absence of racing it's the best I've got.At the very back of the freezer I found a mystery object, encased in ice so long ago that I had long since forgotten what it was. The barely visible 'Bejam' logo (remember them? Like Iceland but without the shoot-me-now TV ads) several inches

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-91573652018427791332010-01-06T23:29:00.005Z2010-01-07T00:23:45.290Z

I see some punters have given in to the weather and like students surrendering to the temptation of drinking drain cleaner when all proper drinks are drunk, have started discussing the odds on Celebrity Big Brother.Personally I refuse to bet on TV shows - bar televised sport - not least of all because, like all-weather racing, I don't really want to encourage it.Wooden spoonBut even the all

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-82964166316057966022010-01-03T15:37:00.004Z2010-01-03T16:13:58.187Z

Like a drunken uncle turning up on Christmas Eve with presents bought at the BP garage ("oh windscreen wiper blades... you really shouldn't have") or a nasty bout of food poisoning, the weather did its best to spoil the festive season. But among those few fixtures that escaped the freeze there was slow but steady progress to be had for this project, after a bumper - and historic - Boxing Day. It

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-1127646215865127312010-01-03T09:53:00.011Z2010-01-03T13:23:59.501Z

While sat watching 30 Rock, starring Alec Baldwin, I was struck by a remarkable look-a-like in the world of racing. I was also reminded of a comment I made while watching Rob Brydon in Gavin and Stacey (or QI, or Have I Got News for You, or Big Fat Quiz of the Year or ...well, he's on everything isn't he...) about a similarity he bears to a particular jockey... but which racing look-a-like is

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-72258014835312646122009-12-27T04:43:00.012Z2009-12-27T12:03:58.059Z

2.40pm: A young family escape the hustle and bustle of a near-capacity Kempton for a brief history lesson by the statue of legendary grey Desert Orchid. This is the course where he enjoyed his greatest successes, including four King George VI Chase victories between 1986 and 1990. Until yesterday his record set him apart from all other chasers and the challenge Kauto Star presented to it is the

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-42127811100248171352009-12-27T03:06:00.013Z2009-12-27T04:43:03.227Z

Kempton Park on Boxing Day has become something of an annual fixture for me as it is for many people. It's not far from my home across the river in Surrey and it offers a guaranteed great day of racing, capped by the King George VI Chase, not to mention some fresh air and the opportunity to blow out some cobwebs after the excesses of the previous day.And each year the day follows a familiar

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-72821305817136389892009-12-27T02:46:00.002Z2009-12-27T02:55:05.579Z

Denman will have to raise game to deny Kauto Star - Daily MailKauto Star joins greats and targets Gold Cup hat-trick - GuardianRecord-breaker Kauto is star of wonder again - IndependentKauto Star clinches fourth King George VI Chase - MirrorRecord - Breaker Kauto Star Overtakes Desert Orchid - New York TimesKauto Star wins fourth King George VI Chase - TelegraphKauto the star - Times

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-69564690014964335782009-12-26T03:52:00.005Z2009-12-26T10:30:07.664Z

What will you be doing at 3:05pm today?As punters walk through the front gates at Kempton today the first thing they'll see is a statue of Desert Orchid, arguably the nation's favourite racehorse and a four-time winner of the King George VI chase.That achievement sets Desert Orchid apart, for now.No other horse has won the King George four times. And not even Dessie managed it four times in four

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-6828844448957398462009-12-22T09:30:00.009Z2009-12-27T07:03:07.580Z

No sooner had I been a little critical of the all-weather alternative to 'proper racing' than the excellent Greg Wood, racing journo of the year, on the Guardian sprang to its defence (though I doubt he'd seen my criticism but rather was sparked into action by the prevalent weather conditions).Wood wrote:An entire generation of punters has now grown up without ever experiencing the

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-30138734449290751092009-12-21T14:04:00.013Z2010-02-13T15:33:47.291Z

A few people have asked since this project began whether I'd share tips. My answer has tended to be 'be careful what you wish for'.However, in the spirit of giving - and of this project - I have 10 best recommendations for making cash post Christmas (not strictly all in 2010). Remember the aim of this project is to make money, not to chase the biggest winnings out there, so some of these won't

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-22009153168258452342009-12-19T19:27:00.007Z2009-12-20T10:25:39.506Z

If my enjoyment of Week 6 of this challenge was a victim of circumstance then no such fate should befall Week 7 which could even prove to be the defining moment of the current golden age of jump racing. The ground staff at Kempton certainly aren't taking any chances.With this in mind, you may have noticed the colour scheme I've now adopted for this blog.Having decorated the tree and the house for

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-88974155073004390712009-12-19T18:29:00.010Z2009-12-22T09:38:42.793Z

I feared the closest I'd get to a winning bet this weekend would be a wager on the weather getting the better of all meaningful racing, and so it almost proved with the shutters coming down at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle.That meant I had to turn instead to the flat racing on the undaunted all-weather tracks at a still snowbound Wolverhampton and Lingfield.I'm not a fan of the ubiquitous

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-37451791304216120412009-12-13T17:02:00.010Z2009-12-13T18:28:44.025Z

On Saturday morning things were looking pretty bleak and I felt as though I was only half way down a long line of people eager to slap me in the face. The facts: 1) I was back down to £500, the point at which this challenge began; 2) Having lost nearly £130 already I still had £90 of outstanding wagers but feared they were inevitably heading down the same toilet. I saw little opportunity to end

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-4724886367144118202009-12-11T23:12:00.007Z2009-12-13T14:26:13.584Z

So, I knew it had to happen at some point but I didn't know it would happen in such brutal style. I've gone right off this project. What a stupid idea! Week 5 so far has seen me crashing back to earth meteorically. I'm practically back to my £500 starting point from last week's high of £729.49.Faced with two days of the highest quality racing at Cheltenham with conditions to suit some very

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-67547618748676708632009-12-06T07:37:00.020Z2009-12-13T14:19:52.768Z

...but only just. Wins and losses were up and down like a whore's drawers yesterday as this project very nearly got stuck in the Sandown mud and gloom, much as I had feared it might.Thanks to a late bet on Somersby in the 1:55, the victory of Twist Magic in the big race (pictured right on a 'lap of honour' with victorious jockey Ruby Walsh) and a place for Silk Affair in the first I came in £10

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-45686075521065592822009-12-05T09:41:00.014Z2009-12-19T18:20:52.482Z

Updated: Tingle Creek day at Sandown today, a popular fixture for UK punters, but heavy going could easily complicate matters and derail many a wager... probably mine.In fact, if I hadn't said at the outset of this project that I would risk at least 10 per cent of my stake each week I'd be sitting this one out quicker than a jungle-bound D-lister skipping the kangaroo anus course."No, I'm fine

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-27178959066468539282009-12-04T10:08:00.009Z2009-12-07T12:56:47.809Z

As this project obviously betrays I'm a racegoer and fan of horseracing. But I'm also a sports fan in general and noted with interest the shortlist of people announced this week for the BBC's Sports Personality of the Year gong.Among them Andy Murray who appears to come up short on both sporting achievement and the aforementioned 'Personality', Mark Cavendish - a cyclist apparently - Beth

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-12178789937062039692009-11-29T05:03:00.008Z2009-12-13T17:30:49.225Z

Week three of my £500 Challenge saw some rules broken, further progress made and a very bad day at the office for the UK's bookies, but all hinged on three very special words: "The going is... good to soft".Yes, I'm admitting to getting excited about mud, or rather the lack of it.That was the official going at Newbury for Saturday's Hennesy Gold Cup and it had major implications for my

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-69000906574954668082009-11-23T12:12:00.003Z2009-12-13T14:21:01.518Z

Thanks to successful selections from racecards at Haydock and Ascot on Saturday, and one from Aintree on Sunday, the balance now sits at £650.15. That represents an 11% increase week-on-week and an overall 30% return on my initial £500 investment.Perhaps there's something in this after all.To stress, I am picking small returns in favour of mitigating risk where possible, and so far it seems to be

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-70434325397958049602009-11-23T12:09:00.002Z2009-12-13T14:21:31.243Z

So, how did the first weekend go? Well, my £500 became a healthy £588.30. I placed five bets, correctly picking two second places and a first (Earth Planet, Poquelin and Tataniano respectively, all trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh at Cheltenham).I could end this project now and even by April I'd have a return of 17% over six months - well ahead of any standard financial product -

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-932493395130878248.post-23387974007067625072009-11-23T09:30:00.001Z2009-11-29T16:50:11.814Z

Last week I started a project called 'The £500 Betfair Challenge'*. This project is intended to test, in these turbulent times for traditional financial markets, whether there could be another, less conventional way to create a sustainable investment through horseracing.I know what you're thinking. It's a mug's game, right? A fool and his money... etc...And you're probably right.But that's what

Will Sturgeonnoreply@blogger.com1